Employment Situation Report for Feb '25 (published 3/7/25)

“Analysts had anticipated continued modest job growth in today’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation Summary despite concerns about a possible underlying economic slowdown, tariff uncertainties, impact of federal layoffs, and weather disruptions in February,” noted Rick Hermanns, president and chief executive officer of HireQuest.

“Today’s results seemed to confirm analyst confidence as total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 151,000 in January, slightly below their consensus estimates and similar to the average monthly gain of 168,000 over the prior 12 months.”

Both the unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, and the number of unemployed people, at 7.1 million, changed little in February. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.0 percent to 4.2 percent since May 2024.

“In a recent interview, I was asked about the character traits that have been instrumental in driving my career path and successfully growing the HireQuest organization.

I identified three traits: adaptability, decisiveness and humility. Adaptability — staying nimble to deal with rapidly changing circumstances but remaining true to your north star; Decisiveness — acting confidently and making the best choice with the information at hand; And humility in recognizing that success is a team effort.

Recent comments by Jamie Dimon, CEO of global finance powerhouse JPMorgan, regarding his firm’s commitment to a ‘return-to-office’ culture illustrated those traits in action,” noted Hermanns.

“He demonstrated adaptability, recognizing that the cultural and business goals he set for the bank could not be accomplished without a full commitment to a comprehensive RTO policy. His colorful language in a heated town hall meeting in February certainly illustrated his decisiveness. No one could have been confused by his message and commitment to what he perceived to be the best interest of JPMorgan. And I admired his sense of humility as he acknowledged his verbal missteps after a recording of his passionate town hall comments leaked to the press. While remaining firmly committed to RTO he recognized, ‘I should never curse, ever. I shouldn’t get angry and stuff like that.’

While I respect Mr. Dimon’s courage to take the organizational heat for what he sees as the right path for his firm, it is a path that might not be optimal for others. Business leaders, however, can use the JPMorgan results to help shape their own organizations plans. Another source of RTO learning is currently underway with the Trump administration’s mandate to require federal workers to return to office combined with a voluntary buyout option. The twofold goal is to require in-office presence but also to encourage a reduction in headcount to streamline government operations. The federal RTO mandate and the JPMorgan case study will provide valuable insights into employee behavioral metrics that should contribute to future policy formation for private sector businesses.”

CNBC reporter Jeff Cox provided a leading bank’s context to the BLS report noting, “For now, Goldman Sachs said the DOGE cuts probably will lower the headline payrolls number by just 10,000 or so and expects weather-related impacts to be small. Overall, the bank said the current picture, according to alternative figures, is one of “a firm pace of job creation, and we expect continued, albeit moderating, contributions from catch-up hiring and the recent surge in immigration.”

Looking at today’s data and possible future employment trends, Wall Street Journal reporter Justin Lahart commented, “The U.S. continued to generate jobs at a steady pace in February, offering reassurances that the labor market has remained relatively stable since President Trump took office. Economists expect that the combination of government job layoffs, reduced government funding, uncertainty over tariffs and immigration restrictions will at least temporarily weigh on employment growth in the months ahead.”

Key industries reported the following trends in February 2025:

Healthcare added 52,000 jobs in February, in line with the average monthly gain of 54,000 over the prior 12 months.

Employment in financial activities rose by 21,000 in February, well above the prior 12-month average gain (+5,000). Over the month, employment continued to trend up in real estate and rental and leasing (+10,000) and insurance carriers and related activities (+5,000). Of note commercial banking lost 5,000 jobs.

Transportation and warehousing employment continued to trend up in February (+18,000), slightly stronger than the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+13,000). Over the month, job growth occurred in couriers and messengers (+24,000) and air transportation (+4,000).

Employment in social assistance continued to trend up in February (+11,000), but below the average monthly gain over the prior 12 months (+21,000).

Within government, federal government employment declined by 10,000 in February.

Employment in retail trade changed little over the month (-6,000) and has shown little net change over the year. In February, employment in food and beverage retailers declined by 15,000, largely due to strike activity. Warehouse clubs, supercenters, and other general merchandise retailers added 10,000 jobs.

Employment showed little change over the month in other major industries, including mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; information; professional and business services; leisure and hospitality; and other services.

“While every business leader might not agree that Mr. Diamon’s or the federal RTO policy is right for their organization, they probably would agree that creating an optimal RTO policy within their organization requires core disciplines, adaptability, fearlessness in the decision-making process and the humility to understand that a leader needs to demonstrate firmness with a sense of true collaboration to drive results,” noted Hermanns.

The Trevi Group | “Executive Search for Technology Professionals” | www.TheTreviGroup.com

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